Syria Stability Index — weekly assessment of 3 Nov 2026
The 3 Nov 2026 assessment of Syria's stability across ten pillars, with narratives, evidence and sources.
Composite index: 28/100 — weekly assessment of 3 Nov 2026.
- Security & Conflict: 2.5/10 — Landmine deaths, tribal armed clashes, and Israeli incursions into Quneitra mark continued violence.
Two girls were killed and two others injured by a landmine in Maizileh village in rural Deir ez-Zor, according to Syria TV and North Press (Nov 2026), with a separate landmine blast in al-Bukamal also killing two and injuring two, as reported by SANA and Enab Baladi (Nov 2026). Armed clashes involving automatic weapons and RPGs erupted between two tribal families in Hama's al-Sawaeq district, with security forces intervening to restore order, according to Enab Baladi and Syria TV (Nov 2026). Israeli forces advanced into the village of al-Asbah in rural southern Quneitra with five military vehicles, Syrian media reported via Middle East Eye (Nov 2026). Enab Baladi (Nov 2026) documented 395 Israeli violations in Syria during October 2026, the highest monthly total recorded in 2026. The INFORM Risk Index (2025) rates Syria's overall humanitarian risk at 7.7 out of 10, reflecting persistently high hazard levels.
- Humanitarian Conditions: 2.4/10 — Humanitarian funding at 38% of requirements, food prices surging, and nearly 5.7 million IDPs remain in acute need.
The 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan for Syria is only 38% funded, with $1,114 million received of the $2,922 million required, according to FTS OCHA (2026). Food security funding stands at just 16% of requirements and WASH at 26%, leaving critical gaps, per FTS OCHA (2026). WFP (Sep 2026) reports sharp year-on-year price increases for key food commodities, including wheat flour up 32.9%, cooking oil up 39.4%, and diesel fuel up 63.6%, severely eroding household purchasing power. IOM DTM (Aug 2026) records 5,693,000 internally displaced persons across all 14 governorates, with Rural Damascus alone hosting 2,240,000. Syria's overall INFORM humanitarian risk score is 7.7 out of 10, ranked 10th globally, according to the INFORM Risk Index (2025).
- Economic Stability: 2.4/10 — Food and fuel prices surge sharply; US lawmakers push to ease Syria export restrictions to unlock investment.
WFP (Sep 2026) data shows diesel fuel prices rose 63.6% year-on-year and daily wages for non-qualified labour increased 68.8% year-on-year, indicating significant inflationary pressure across the economy. Syria TV (Nov 2026) reports that US lawmakers have called on the Commerce Department to ease export restrictions on Syria and remove it from the E:1 classification, arguing current controls obstruct American business entry. The Syrian Ministry of Finance launched a plan to close accumulated tax files from previous years as a step toward implementing new tax legislation, according to The Syria Report (Nov 2026). Families face sharp increases in the cost of children's winter clothing, with new winter outfits costing around $100 in Damascus, pushing consumers to second-hand markets, per Syria TV (Nov 2026). The World Bank (2025) places unemployment at 13.6% of the labour force, while the most recent GDP figure of US$23.7 billion dates to 2022.
- Governance & Rule of Law: 3.3/10 — Government regulatory activity continues with bakery enforcement, public-sector working-hour decrees, and curriculum reform debate.
SANA (Nov 2026) reports that trade inspection units in Hasakah governorate issued 10 violations against bakeries in Qamishli, Amuda, and Darbasiyah for bread underweighting offences, indicating ongoing consumer protection enforcement. The General Secretariat of the Presidency issued Decision No. 1616 setting official public-sector working hours from 8am to 4pm effective December 2026, according to The Syria Report (Nov 2026). The CBS Governor delivered a speech at the FATF 2026 Paris meeting, signalling Syria's engagement with international financial governance frameworks, per The Syria Report (Nov 2026). Syria TV and Enab Baladi (Nov 2026) report an active public debate on curriculum reform, with questions raised about the limits of educational revision after the fall of the previous government and risks of new ideological influence. An analyst in The Syrian Observer (Nov 2026) describes Syrian political decision-making as operating under a policy of shock absorption and damage mitigation.
- Displacement & Returns: 3.3/10 — Over 5.69 million IDPs remain inside Syria and nearly 4.87 million refugees abroad; Lebanese-Syrian refugee talks ongoing.
IOM DTM (Aug 2026) records 5,693,000 IDPs across all 14 Syrian governorates, with the largest concentrations in Rural Damascus (2,240,000), Aleppo (912,000), Idleb (825,000), and Damascus (594,000). UNHCR (2025) separately records 4,865,764 Syrian refugees abroad and 5,542,227 IDPs inside the country. A Lebanese government delegation visited Damascus on 2 November 2026 to continue talks, with the refugee file topping the agenda, according to Enab Baladi and Asharq Al-Awsat (Nov 2026). Syria's population stands at 25.6 million according to the World Bank (2025), underscoring the scale of displacement relative to the total population. The Ministry of Education issued regulations on the use of equivalency certificates for employment in public bodies, which may facilitate some returnee integration, per Syria TV (Nov 2026).
- Infrastructure & WASH: 2.7/10 — Al-Nour Hospital in Deir ez-Zor reopens; irrigation canal rehabilitated; Aleppo launches sanitation complaints app.
SANA (Nov 2026) reports that al-Nour Hospital in Deir ez-Zor, closed for years, has resumed medical services after rehabilitation and installation of modern equipment. Oxfam, supervised by Deir ez-Zor's agricultural directorate, completed rehabilitation of an irrigation canal in Hawayej Dhiyab village serving approximately 6,000 dunums of agricultural land, according to SANA (Nov 2026). Aleppo governorate launched an electronic application for citizens to submit and track sanitation complaints, as reported by Enab Baladi (Nov 2026). Tartous transport committee approved measures to organise passenger transport and improve traffic safety, per SANA (Nov 2026). The World Bank (2024) records that 89.3% of Syria's population has access to electricity, leaving a significant minority without reliable power.
- Regional Dynamics: 3.3/10 — Israeli forces enter Quneitra; 395 violations logged in October; Lebanon-Syria refugee talks proceed diplomatically.
Israeli forces advanced into al-Asbah village in rural southern Quneitra with five military vehicles, according to Middle East Eye (Nov 2026). Enab Baladi (Nov 2026) reports that the monitoring centre Sijil documented 395 Israeli violations in Syria during October 2026, the highest monthly count in 2026. The Syrian Observer (Nov 2026) published testimonies of Syrian detainees alleging abuse in Israeli prisons following ground incursions. Lebanon and Syria held bilateral talks in Damascus with refugee return and border security as primary topics, according to Asharq Al-Awsat and Enab Baladi (Nov 2026). The appointment of a Druze adviser for peace affairs, reported by Al-Monitor and The National (Nov 2026), signals Damascus's effort to manage relations with southern minority communities amid ongoing Israeli activity in the south.
- Natural Resources & Energy: 2.8/10 — Fuel prices at historic highs; irrigation infrastructure partially restored; flash flood risk rising with soil moisture.
WFP (Sep 2026) records diesel prices at 175 SYP per litre, up 63.6% year-on-year, and cooking gas at 1,600 SYP per 25 kg cylinder, up 18.2% year-on-year, indicating acute energy affordability stress. European soil moisture mapping based on data from 1 November 2026 shows rising moisture levels across Syrian regions, heightening flash flood concerns, according to The Syrian Observer (Nov 2026). Oxfam completed rehabilitation of an irrigation canal in Deir ez-Zor governorate benefiting approximately 6,000 dunums of farmland, per SANA (Nov 2026). The Syrian Atomic Energy Commission's safety division is working to enhance radiation safety and ensure safe use of nuclear and radiation technologies through six specialised scientific units, according to SANA (Nov 2026). Access to electricity stands at 89.3% of the population as of 2024, per the World Bank.
- Civil Society & Protests: 3.6/10 — Cultural and civic activity continues; curriculum reform debated openly; hate speech legal gaps draw civil society attention.
Theatre performances were staged in Tartous and Homs addressing themes of loss, displacement, and social relations, according to SANA (Nov 2026), reflecting continued cultural production. Syria TV (Nov 2026) and Enab Baladi (Nov 2026) report an active public debate on curriculum reform, with concerns about both the legacy of the former government's ideological influence and risks of new political shaping of education. Enab Baladi (Nov 2026) published analysis on hate speech in Syria, noting that freedom of expression now faces challenges beyond political censorship, including inadequate legal frameworks for hate speech amid an evolving media environment. Aleppo governorate's launch of a citizen-facing sanitation complaints app, per Enab Baladi (Nov 2026), represents a small step in civic engagement with local administration. A football match between Jableh and Saraqib was suspended after crowd violence in the stands, according to Syria TV (Nov 2026), illustrating social tensions surfacing in public spaces.
- Public Trust & Cohesion: 2.8/10 — Druze adviser appointment signals inclusive outreach; tribal clashes and Israeli detention testimonies undermine communal trust.
Syria's Foreign Minister appointed Druze activist Mozna Alatrash as an adviser for peace affairs, a move Al-Monitor and The National (Nov 2026) describe as signalling an effort to assert authority in the south and engage minority communities. However, armed tribal clashes in Hama using automatic weapons and RPGs, reported by Enab Baladi and Syria TV (Nov 2026), highlight persistent communal tensions and limited state authority at the local level. Testimonies of alleged abuse of Syrian detainees in Israeli prisons, published by The Syrian Observer (Nov 2026), may reinforce mistrust of external actors and complicate public perceptions of state protective capacity. The Syrian Observer (Nov 2026) describes political decision-making as operating under shock absorption logic, suggesting limited public confidence in the government's transformative capacity. Life expectancy of 72.6 years as of 2024, per the World Bank, reflects a population that has survived prolonged crisis but faces ongoing structural vulnerabilities.