Syria outlook: scenarios for the next three months and our track record
Three scenarios for Syria over the next three months, with their likelihood and the signposts that would show each unfolding, and every past forecast checked against what happened.
Syria edges toward economic engagement and transitional justice gains while sovereign security deficits, infrastructure sabotage threats, and collapsing humanitarian funding keep overall stability fragile.
Better (unlikely)
Al-Sharaa's Riyadh visit produces binding Saudi commitments that unlock Gulf budget support, accelerating the road rehabilitation programme beyond its current 646 million USD contracted base. Chinese and American investment discussions translate into early disbursements, easing fuel and food price pressure. Israeli incursions into Quneitra and Damascus countryside halt under diplomatic pressure, reducing the principal external drag on sovereignty.
Expected (likely)
Diplomatic and economic momentum continues at a modest pace: road contracts advance, Syrian-Chinese forums yield framework agreements without major disbursements, and transitional justice trials proceed incrementally. Israeli incursions and the alleged Hezbollah-linked sabotage threat persist as recurring disruptions, while humanitarian funding stays critically low, keeping the 5.69 million IDP population in acute need and food prices elevated.
Worse (unlikely)
A successful infrastructure attack on the Homs refinery or another energy asset, following the foiled plot, sharply drives up fuel prices from their already historic highs and deters investors. Combined with continued Jordanian or Israeli unilateral strikes and curriculum-linked street protests in Hasakah, communal tensions escalate and donor confidence collapses, pushing humanitarian funding below current levels and triggering a new IDP displacement wave.